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DEFCON 3 and Rising . . .
A WWIII “What if” Mini Campaign
by
Peter Hunt
Task Force 60.1 with a Soviet AGI at
the “12 o’clock” position.
The Reality…
On the
morning of October 24 1973, in the final stages of the “Yom Kippur” war,
Israeli troops reached Suez City on the West Bank of the Suez Canal, cutting
off the Egyptian 3rd Army. Egyptian President Sadat requested
that U.S. and Soviet troops be sent to enforce the cease fire that the
Israelis had broken to achieve their encirclement. Secretary Brezhnev wrote
to President Nixon accusing the Israelis of deliberately violating the
understanding reached by the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. and supported Sadat’s
proposal for joint cease fire enforcement, but added: “Let me be quite
blunt. In the event that the U.S. rejects this proposal, we should have to
consider unilateral actions of our
own.”
In the absence
of President Nixon, who was spiraling down into his Watergate debacle and
possibly drunk, Secretary of State Kissinger chaired a NSC meeting that
raised the American strategic defence posture to DEFCON 3 for the first time
since the Cuban Missile Crisis, and for the last time in the Cold War.
Both sides
reinforced their fleets in the Western Mediterranean, including their
amphibious forces. The Soviets closely monitored the American task forces
with “tattletale” surface action groups (KUG) that could coordinate a
distant submarine or aircraft launched missile strike, and, indeed, strike
themselves. With two American carrier battle groups in place and a third
arriving, the Americans had a powerful air weapon. On the other hand the
Soviets were well ahead in missile technology. The Americans had much better
submarines, the Russians had many more of them. It was by no means a
one-sided contest and the Chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff,
Admiral Thomas Moorer concluded that: “we could lose our ass in the
eastern Med under these circumstances.”
America’s NATO
allies were not playing in this game. American Secretary of Defense
Schlesinger considered Ted Heath’s Conservative British Government to be
“quasi-Gaullist”, and, of course, the French were Gaullist:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0137tff#synopsis
Fortunately
for the World calmer heads prevailed and in the real Mediterranean the
crisis dissipated into a gigantic game of “chicken” as the Soviets conducted
anti-carrier exercises against the America task forces, and the DEFCON was
lowered:
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA422490
But in Hong Kong, 38 years later…
“DEFCON
3 and Rising” assumed that the Middle-East War continued, and the DEFCON
continued to rise, until a non-nuclear war broke out in the eastern Med as
both sides moved to support their clients. This involved a day of “non-war”
as both sides jockeyed for position.
The
Soviets decided to launch a massive airlift of troops, backed up by an
amphibious landing to enforce the ceasefire, and insisted that American air
and naval units withdraw from the Eastern Med so that they could not
interfere with this. The Americans stood on their “freedom of navigation”
rights. The Politburo instructed their Mediterranean 5th Eskrada,
supported by Naval Aviation, Frontal Aviation and some PVO Strany units
providing long range fighter cover, to clear the seas and sky above by the
morning of 27th October. The Soviet theatre commanders decided on
a dawn strike. The result of this was several near simultaneous actions: the
“battle of the first salvo”, as both sides struck at their targets and
trailers. Neither side had enough resources to be certain of overwhelming
all of the enemy task forces so it was a question of how they set up their
forces to contact or evade the enemy in “peacetime”, and what resources they
allocated to their attacks.
The game
was designed as another play test for my “Handbrake” modern naval rules that
are under development, and I was hoping for a complex, but cohesive scenario
to develop, involving multiple task forces and missile and air strikes, to
test the rules. Admiral Frankie Li commanded the 5th Eskrada
surface groups (KUGs) and Spetsnaz troops involved in the operation, Air
Marshall Doug Thomson directed the submarine units, (I purposely split the 5th
Eskrada command to make life difficult for the Soviets,) and the air assets
based in Bulgaria, which he commanded from his underground bunker in
Scotland, 6,000 miles away.
Admiral Paul Garnham had his ass on the
line in the Eastern Med, commanding the US 6th Fleet and their
supporting air assets on Crete.
The orders of
battle were built up using the Goldstein and Zhukov article above plus other
sources, with notable help from some friendly chaps on “The Miniatures Page”
site who were actually there:
http://theminiaturespage.com/boards/msg.mv?id=193105
I included the
Israeli, Egyptian and Greek navies in the mix just to keep all the players
distracted but I had little intention of using them, not that that helped
the poor Greeks…
I think
that the naval OBs were pretty close to the real thing, the possible
exception being the number of American attack subs available. I found a
couple of internet sources maintaining that these were there in double
figures, but I limited them to four that I could positively identify… it was
enough. Building and converting the ships became a little bit obsessive, but
that is what wargaming is all about. Aircraft were a different matter. The
carrier air groups were easy to pin down, but I chose
American
F4 Phantoms and Greek F 102 Delta Daggers on Crete because I like them and
wanted to paint them, and most of the Russian aircraft were chosen from what
I had available. I did go on a major converting spree, chopping and puttying
Tumbling Dice 1:600 Yak 25s into the reconnaissance version and Yak 28
bombers and fighters, mainly because I think these are some of the coolest
Cold War aircraft: all pointy and swept back, just like something out of Dan
Dare:
http://www.vectorsite.net/avyak25.html
Strategic
movement was handled by using maps from the great old SPI classic “Task
Force”, and the rest was left to my Machiavellian machinations as umpire.
The War Plans…
The Soviet
problem was coordinating their strikes in space and time, and they had two
main hurdles to overcome. First their Echo and Juliet class missile subs
would have to surface to fire, and, if detected, this would be certain to
set off the Americans. Second the island of Crete gave the Americans a
third, unsinkable aircraft carrier, that also provided radar coverage deep
into the Aegean Sea that would provide them with warning of any incoming
bomber and missile carrier airstrikes on the fleet. In addition to their air
assets the Soviets had spetsnaz units operating off a fish factory ship in
the Aegean and these were given the option of, in order of difficulty,
striking at the main Cretan airfield at Suda Bay, destroying the air defence
headquarters, striking at the airfield’s fuel farm, or striking at two radar
installations on the island. The last were the softest targets, but were
widely separated, so again there would be coordination problems.
The Soviets
decided to hit the fuel farm with spetsnaz just before dawn. At the same
time air launched anti-radiation missiles would strike the radar sites, (if
fact the Egyptian’s had done this at Sharm El Sheik at the beginning of the
Yom Kippur war so I was impressed with Doug’s art imitating life,) followed
by massive fighter sweeps and raids over the airfield and Naval Aviation SU
17s attacking the warships in Suda Bay. Whilst all this was going on the
missile subs would surface and their launch at the American carrier groups
would be coordinated with two strikes by TU 16 Badger and TU 95 Bear missile
carriers, who would be preceded by a Mig 25 fighter sweep, whilst the Soviet
surface action groups and attack submarines got stuck in.
Meanwhile Admiral Garnham spent a frustrating day seeking authority to take
the war to the Soviets before they took it to him, but Washington demanded
restraint. Both his carriers maintained a fighter combat air patrol (CAP) of
Phantoms, and a war at sea CAP of Corsairs during the day and Intruders at
night; whilst his escorts, helicopters and P3 Orions prosecuted several
Soviet submarine contacts near their task forces.
American
nuclear attack boats latched on to Soviet subs, or onto the KUGs, in a
dangerous game of tag, as Soviet ships tailed American ships, and American
subs tailed the Soviet ships. With Soviet Bears, and American E1 and E2
AWACS, having a surveillance range of several hundred miles each, both sides
knew exactly where the other side’s surface ships were and tensions mounted
quickly as Soviet and American ships and aircraft operated in close
proximity. As night fell the Soviet KUGs closed the range to the American
task forces and Garnham released his last reserve: PatDiv 21, four Ashville
class gunboats, two of which were the only American ships armed with
surface-to-surface missiles at the time.
PatDiv 21 en route to the action.
How it played out…
The spetsnaz
raid is described here:
http://fezfamiliar.blogspot.com/2011/12/1973-cold-war-goes-hot-spetznaz-raid-on.html
The airstrikes
on Crete were so one-sided that I played them out as a paper game. The
American Phantoms and Greek Daggers fought bravely but went down under
Soviet numbers, especially after successful Soviet strikes on their radar
removed their ground control advantage. The runway at Suda was cratered, and
the strike on the port left one Greek destroyer sunk and another crippled, a
sad end to Fletcher class ships that had served so well in World War Two.
At sea
we ended up with five possible scenarios ranging from three ships to 27.
Pushed for time before Christmas we focused on the big one, involving the
two main Carrier Battle Groups
of the 6th fleet and played it
out at the 17th December 2011 meeting.
TF 60.2
with
the USS Franklin Delano Roosevelt portrayed here by her sister-ship USS
Midway.
One
hundred and twenty five miles south of Crete Admiral Garnham and Task Force
(TF) 60.1 headed northwest with the carrier Independence, the fleet
flagships Mount Whitney and Little Rock, a missile cruiser, three destroyers
and the huge replenishment ship Seattle. Twenty five miles to his south was
TF 60.2 with the carrier Franklin Delano Roosevelt escorted by one missile
cruiser, three destroyers and an oiler.
Garnham
considered his flag plot and grimaced, it was like the curates egg, good in
part. Both of his task forces had the ubiquitous Soviet intelligence ships
(AGIs) shadowing them. Twenty miles to his west his Sea King helicopters and
a P3 Orion were making life miserable for a Soviet November class nuclear
attack boat. Twelve miles east of TF 60.2 was Soviet KUG 2, consisting of
the big gun cruiser Murmansk and her destroyer escort acting as tattletales.
His own tattletales, Soviet KUG 1, consisting of the cruiser Groznyi and two
destroyers had dropped back and were now 50 miles to his Southeast. Garnham
knew why, the Murmansk would have to keep close to use her 150mm guns but
the Groznyi’s main armament was eight P6 “Shaddock” surface to surface
missiles with a range of hundreds of miles. Groznyi also carried reloads for
her missile, making her more than a one shot threat. However Garnham knew
what the captain of Groznyi KUG didn’t…that Trepang, an American nuclear
attack boat, was shadowing them. Garnham had also vectored the gunboats of
PatDiv 21 onto the Murmansk KUG and they were now thirty miles north of the
cruiser. All this information came to him courtesy of the E1 “Tracer” and E2
“Hawkeye” AWACs aircraft that were tracking all air and surface targets
around his TFs. However he knew that the Soviets had just as good
information, his ESM had no difficulty picking up the surveillance radar
from the TU 95 Rts “Bear D” that was nearly 200 miles to his Northeast.
KUG 2 Shadowing the FDR battle-group.
What Garnham
was missing from his plot was the location of the Soviet missile subs, had
he known where they were he would have grimaced even more. Seventy-five
miles west of him were a line of undetected Foxtrot conventional subs. These
were no threat to his TFs but they were not intended to attack.
Thomsonavitch had put them there as a “trip wire” to engage any American
attack boats heading west, for behind the Foxtrots came his “Sunday punch”:
two Echo class missile boats each carrying eight Shaddock surface-to-surface
missiles (SSMs): carrier killers. To further complicate things for the
Imperialists, a Juliet class missile sub with four Shaddocks was lurking 175
miles to the Southeast.
Just as the
spetsnaz troopers were cutting the wire at Suda, the Soviet missile subs
checked their sonar and blew their tanks to surface. Except, that is, the
Juliet which picked up the distinctive sonar signature of an American Knox
class frigate almost on top of it. Discretion was the better part of valour
and the sub stayed submerged and safe…for now. The two Echos surfaced and
started their cumbersome launch procedures, it would take up to 30 minutes
to acquire targets and launch their birds, and a lot could happen in 30
minutes.
“The Stoof with a Roof” an E1 Tracer
AWACS.
Garnham
was well served by his AWACs’ unblinking eyes in the sky. Detecting the
relatively small surfaced subs was not certain at such long range but both
were picked up. This triggered the 6th Fleet’s rules of
engagement, they need wait no longer for proof of Soviet aggression and had
permission to fire in self-defence. The first to suffer were the Soviet AGIs
which had been shadowing both TFs, unarmed, but still potentially deadly as
they would act as homing beacons for the rest of the Soviet forces, they
were quickly dealt with by a combination of American SAMs used in the
anti-ship mode, and good old fashioned 5” gunfire. The rest of the American
pre-emptive response was less effective. After tracking the November for
hours, the Sea King was finally given “weapons hot” permission, only for the
crew to watch in dismay as their torpedoes either failed to home or were
evaded as the November sprinted towards TF 60.1. The two “war at sea”
air-strikes were equally ineffective. The four Intruders targeting KUG 1
were quickly acquired and faced a barrage of missiles from Groznyi and her
consort, the Kashin class air-defence destroyer Povornyi, and lost one of
their number without scoring any hits. The Intruders targeting KUG 2 only
had to face one Kashin class and suffered no losses, but likewise scored no
hits. Garnham had no time to curse his luck as the flag plot started
lighting up with incoming Soviet strikes…this battle was going to be short,
but desperate.
“Defender of the Fleet”: The “Horizon
Cord” shows that, in game terms, this F4 Phantom II CAP is at least 70 miles
outbound from TF.60.1 in addition to the separation on the table.
First to
arrive were the fastest fighters in the world: six Mig 25s. These were
intended to engage the American CAPs to clear the way for the bombers
behind. However the Mig 25s were designed for reconnaissance, or for
intercepting enemy bombers with their long range missiles, hence their high
speed. In a dogfight they were at a big disadvantage, having no short range
missiles or cannon whilst the defending Phantoms had both. Thus, after a
long range exchange of Soviet R 40 and American Sparrow missiles that
accounted for one aircraft each, the Soviets could do nothing more than to
use their speed to “bug out” before the Phantom CAP closed. If numerical
honours were equal the CAP had held the fleet’s defence perimeter and so had
a tactical victory. But they had no time to gloat... the Soviet bombers were
inbound.
Mig 25s inbound touch base with the
TU 95 Rts Bear surveillance aircraft.
The first
strike consisted of 6 TU 16 Badgers and 2 TU 95 Bears, all armed with a
brace of air-to-surface missiles. The TU 95s were unable to datalink with
the Bear D spotting for them and made a flyby to try a second approach. The
Badgers had no problem obtaining target information and twelve KSR 2M “Kelt”
missiles were soon heading towards TF 60.1. Garnham viewed his flag plot
apprehensively as the transonic missiles, the size of small planes, were
picked up by the AWACs and the Task Force’s own radar. The second CAP flight
engaged with their Sparrows and splashed three of the missiles and the
ships’ missiles accounted for two more. Again the Soviet electronics let
them down as half of the missiles failed to receive the necessary mid-course
guidance from the Bear D, but the remaining ones locked on to a large target
near the centre of the Task Force… moments later the supply ship Seattle was
devastated by two massive explosions as the Kelts hit home.
The Soviet AGI burns on the
horizon as Kelts smash into the Seattle, but the Independence and the 6th
Fleet Flagships are untouched.
The
second strike of 10 Badgers was targeted at TF 60.2.
Again only one flight succeeded in
datalinking with the Bear D and launched 10 Kelts. The other flight pressed
home the attack anyway hoping to acquire targets with their own radar as
they got closer. This was a brave move…brave but foolish. Although their
Sparrows were expended the two Phantom CAP flights still had plenty of
Sidewinders and 20mm ammunition and the hapless bombers were easily taken
down before they could get a radar lock on any American ships.
Bad Day for the Badgers: Few TU 16s
managed to break the 100 mile line.
As the Kelts
homed on the Southern Task Force the FDR’s escorts put up a barrage of SAMs,
and again the Americans were helped by a failure of many of the missiles to
pick up the mid-course guidance that they needed, but still Kelts came on,
their radars seeking targets. One picked a target at random and smashed into
the superstructure of the missile cruiser Yarnell, the other missile headed
straight for the flat-top. The missile struck FDR high on the rear of the
“Island” destroying her radar but not critically damaging the ship, although
flying operations would be hampered… a lucky escape.
Meanwhile the
November was sprinting towards TF 60.1 and loosed a spread of torpedoes at
the closest target, the destroyer Sampson. The American detected the noisy,
fast sub, and also the torpedo launch and turned to comb the tracks. As the
torpedoes ran harmlessly along-side, Sampson retaliated with her own ASROC,
dropping a rocket-borne homing torpedo on top of the Russian boat. The
Soviets were making too much noise to hear the torpedo entering the water
above them, but there was no mistaking the sound of the explosion near the
November’s stern, jamming her steering. To make a bad situation worse the P3
Orion that had been stalking her passed up the opportunity to pursue the
Echoes far away off to the west for the surer target of the November, and
another near miss from a MK 44 torpedo took her turbines temporarily off
line.
ASW: P3 Orion and Sea King hound the
Soviet November attack boat.
The other
submarine in the battle, the U.S.S. Trepang was no more successful, she
attempted a difficult stern shot at the Groznyi, and missed, just as the
cruiser launched eight “Shaddock” missiles at TF 60.1. Once again SAM fire
and inconsistent mid-course guidance whittled down the numbers but three
missiles locked on to one of the largest targets in the battlegroup. And
once again it turned out to be the hapless Seattle which suffered another
hit and two near misses. The crew of the Independence looked on with a
mixture of horror, and relief that it was not them, as the huge supply ship,
critically damaged and burning from end to end, settled in the water.
With a brief
respite both carrier groups turned into the wind to launch aircraft. The
battle would be decided in the next minutes. As the Intruders and Corsairs
made for their targets and the Phantoms replenished the CAP, the Soviet vice
tightened. From the northwest the Bears roared in again, to the west the
Echoes were ready to launch and to the southwest the crew of Groznyi were
rushing to reload her cumbersome SSMs, whilst the Murmansk headed for TF
60.2, which could either run, or launch aircraft, but not both.
The Bears
proved the easiest threat. This time they had no trouble data-linking and
launching, and the missiles picked up the mid-course guidance, but with only
four in the air the revived CAP and the missiles of the Independence’s
escorts easily dealt with them.
KUG 1 was
equally unlucky. Before the Groznyi’s missiles could be reloaded the
Independence’s bombers thundered in. A barrage of SA-N-3 Goa missiles
accounted for three of her attackers but the Americans drove home, leaving
the Groznyi a burning wreck, stopped in the water. Whilst the naval aviators
of the U.S. Navy had done the heavy lifting the submariners were not to be
denied their prey either. With a sitting target the Trepang did not miss a
second time, breaking the Groznyi’s back and sending her to the bottom.
Intruders and Corsairs devastate the
Rocket Cruiser Groznyi.
So everything
depended on the Echo subs’ Shaddock SSMs. The FDR’s CAP, not distracted by
bombers, quickly homed on the salvo heading for TF 60.2 and dealt with five
of the eight missiles. As the Phantom’s broke off the destroyers Ricketts
and Dewey engaged with Tartar and Terrier SAMs. The incoming SSMs were all
accounted for but the last one was so close to the flat-top that debris
followed through, causing minor damage and wiping out some exposed damage
control teams, but not endangering the carrier or her operations. As the FDR
ran into the north-easterly wind to launch aircraft the Murmansk closed on
her. Corsairs and Intruders harried the Russian cruiser and her consort the
destroyer Smetlivyi. These were followed by Standard SSMs from the two
Ashville class missile boats of PatDiv 21. The Smetlivyi suffered badly and,
although the Murmansk’s armour saved her from critical damage she suffered
many minor hits and was unable to break through to the carrier, being
satisfied with wrecking the destroyer Ricketts with her 6” salvoes.
Old School: Murmansk engages the FDR
battle group with gunfire whilst the Corsairs strike back.
The last eight
Shaddocks headed for TF. 60.1. The overworked CAP accounted for only two of
the incoming SSMs and the area defence missiles another two. The surviving
groups of three and one missile sought their prey and locked on to a large
target near the centre of the group… the already burning hulk of the
Seattle. As the giant supply ship reeled and finally sank under this final
onslaught the Independence had, once again, been saved by the vagaries of
Soviet targeting technology.
The Final Agony: Yet more Shaddocks
smash into Seattle whilst Independence remains unscathed.
Aftermath…
We called the
game at this point. The Americans still had more aircraft to launch whilst
the Soviets had run out of missiles and their cruel luck had already lost
them “The Battle of the First Salvo.” A hit and a near miss had caused only
relatively minor damage on the FDR, and, by rights, half of the nine
missiles that had homed on Seattle should have gone for Independence
instead. It was probably well that Air Marshal Thomsonovich was not present
to personally witness Admiral Li’s dice rolling, as a collateral, vodka
fueled, altercation would have only added to the damage the Soviets
suffered.
The mini
campaign format had proved fascinating for me as the umpire and frustrating
for all three participants who had neither the resources, nor the
flexibility, to do everything that they wanted, and thus had to make hard
choices. Nevertheless both sides had developed workable plans and the final
situation that developed, and that we played out, was finely balanced and
could have gone either way.
“Historically”
the scenario captured a moment in time when the naval contest between the
two superpowers was truly “in the balance.” The second generation Phantoms
were still reasonably effective against the first generation Shaddock SSMs
but would have been overwhelmed by the second generation ASMs and SSMs that
arrived a few years later. The Echo class boats were soon superseded by
Charlie class subs that did not have to surface to fire their SSMs, (indeed
one of these was off to the east, preparing a nasty surprise for an American
Amphibious Group.) And on the American side within two years the
introduction of the F 14 Tomcat with long range Phoenix air-to-air missiles,
followed by the introduction of air and surface launched Harpoon anti-ship,
(and anti-surfaced-sub,) missiles would begin to swing the balance back in
their favour.
The two
players had handled 18 US surface ships and seven Soviets, plus an attack
sub on each side, and the two Soviet missile boats. In the air 44 American
aircraft of all types, (with more to come,) had faced 25 Russians. Forty
minutes of game time had taken three hours on the table-top. So I was well
pleased with the playability and accuracy of the rules compared to the
industry leaders such as “Harpoon” and “Shipwreck”, but the game threw up
lots of ideas for further streamlining to increase playability without
sacrificing accuracy, and I’m working on them now.
I’d like to
thank Paul, Frankie and Doug for their commitment to the project, good
humour, and practical feedback. All that they asked for was “A Willing Foe
and Sea Room”, and they got both…
“Willing Foes”: Admirals Li and
Garnham contemplate their next move whilst the umpire ponders another round
of rules rewriting.
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